A Priori

The end of one year and the beginning of the next always witnesses a wave of predictions. Given the unpredictability of the world's stock markets, I'm quite surprised that nobody has attempted to second-guess the fortunes of companies in the technology sector by reading their different star signs?

Oracle has to be a Virgo and Microsoft shows definite Cancerian traits. But then, "economics", as someone once told me, "is a profession marginally less respectable than astrology" and he was probably right.

The technology sector should perhaps study its own weaknesses more carefully at this difficult time in its short history. There is an unfortunate tendency on the part of many large and successful IT companies to believe too deeply in their own propaganda. This is, after all, the engine which maintains the stock price, when market conditions are unfavourable.

If there is one modest and sometimes painful consequence of recession, then it's introspection, something I'm seeing more of from executives in many of the IT vendors who have suffered most this year.



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